Intolerance of Uncertainty, Estimated Consensus, and the False Consensus Effect
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24917/20845596.12.2Keywords:
intolerance of uncertainty, estimated consensus, false consensus effectAbstract
False consensus means a tendency to overestimate the frequency of one’s views and preferences compared to others in the population. The factors that determine the strength of this tendency are still being explored. Research on a sample of 246 students examined the relationship between the level of intolerable uncertainty, measured by the Polish version of the Intolerance Uncertainty Scale (IUS-12), and the strength of the estimated and false consensus. It was assumed that people with less tolerance to uncertainty were more likely to overestimate the universality of their opinions. People with low (lower quartile) and high (upper quartile) uncertainty tolerance were compared using two indicators: the magnitudes of the estimated consensus and the false consensus. It was found that people with low uncertainty tolerance frequently overestimated their own choices: t(121) = -2.03, p = 0.022 compared to people with high tolerance; the second indicator confirmed the expected relationship only at the level of the trend: t(121) = -1.48, p = 0.071. Also, it was shown that people with low tolerance to uncertainty more often chose the less radical options of “probably yes” or “probably no”: t(121)References
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Pluralistic Ignorance or False Consensus? Journal of Personality, 56(2), 405-414.
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uncertainty scales. Clinical Psychologist, 14(3), 97-106.
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Lambert, N.M., Stillman, T.F, Hicks, J.A., Kamble, S., Baumeister, R.F., Fincham, F.D. (2013).
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Social Psychology Bulletin, 39(11), 1418-1427.
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and theoretical review. Psychological Bulletin, 102, 72-90.
Morrison, K.R., Matthes, J. (2011). Socially motivated projection: Need to belong increases
perceived opinion consensus on important issues. European Journal of Social
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Mullen, B. (1983). Egocentric bias in estimates of consensus. The Journal of Social Psychology,
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(1985). The false consensus effect: A meta-analysis of 115 hypothesis tests. Journal
of Experimental Social Psychology, 21, 262-283.
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of difference, and preference for novelty or scarcity. Japanese Psychological Research,
25(2), 69-77.
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States: Political Ideology, False Consensus, and the Illusion of Uniqueness. PLOS
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researchgate.net/publication/228079409_Measuring_Global_Self-Esteem_Construct_
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(dostęp: 10.01.2019).
Ross, L., Greene, D., House, P. (1977). The “false consensus effect”: An egocentric bias in
social perception and attribution processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,
13, 279-301.
Schwartz, N., Clore, G.L. (1983). Mood, misattribution and judgments of well-being: Informative
and directive function of affective states. Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 45, 513-523.
Snyder, C.R., Fromkin, H.L. (1977). Abnormality as a positive characteristic: The development
and validation of a scale measuring need for uniqueness. Journal of Abnormal
Psychology, 86, 518-527.
Snyder, C.R., Fromkin, H.L. (1980). Uniqueness: The Human Pursuit of Difference. New
York: Plenum Press.
Stern, C., West, T.V., Schmidt, P.G. (2014). The Liberal Illusion of Uniqueness. Psychological
Science, 25, 137-144.
Stern, C., West, T.V., Jost, J.T., Rule, N.O. (2014). “Ditto Heads”: Do Conservatives Perceive
Greater Consensus Within Their Ranks Than Liberals? Personality and Social Psychology
Bulletin, 40(9), 1162-1177.
Yinon, Y., Mayraz, S., Fox, S. (1994). Age and the false-consensus effect. The Journal of
Social Psychology, 134(6), 717-725.
Wojciszke, B. (2001). Dane i pseudodane w procesie spostrzegania ludzi. W: M. Kofta,
T. Szutrowa (red.), Złudzenia, które pozwalają żyć. Szkice ze społecznej psychologii
osobowości (s. 65-90). Warszawa: PWN.
Wojciszke, B. (2002). Człowiek wśród ludzi. Zarys psychologii społecznej. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo
Naukowe Scholar.
Wolfson, S. (2000). Students’ estimates of the prevalence of drug use: Evidence for a false
consensus effect. Psychology of Addictive Behaviours, 14(3), 295-298.
Brabender, V., Deutsch, F.M. (1993). Generalizability of the False Consensus Effect in
Chronic Psychiatric Patients. The Journal of Social Psychology, 133(2), 2015-2223.
Buhr, K., Dugas, M.J. (2002). The Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale: Psychometric properties
of the English version. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 40, 931-946.
Carleton, R.N., Norton, M.A., Asmundson, G.J.G. (2007). Fearing the unknown: A short
version of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale. Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 21,
105-117.
Cialdini, R. (2004). Wywieranie wpływu na ludzi. Teoria i praktyka. Gdańsk: GWP.
Coleman, M.D. (2018). Emotion and the False Consensus Effect. Current Psychology, 37,
58-64.
Corbalan, F. (2010/2012). Złota proporcja. Matematyczny język piękna. Toruń: Buka
Books.
Freeston, M., Rheaume, J., Letarte, H., Dugas, M.J., Ladouceur, R. (1994). Why do people
worry? Personality & Individual Differences, 17, 791-802.
Gross, S.R., Miller, N. (1997). The “Golden Section” and Bias in Perceptions of Social Consensus.
Personality and Social Psychology Review, 1(3), 241-271.
Hardin, C.D., Higgins, E.T. (1996). Shared reality: How social verification makes the subjective
objective. In: R. Sorrentino, E.T. Higgins (Eds.), Handbook of motivation and
cognition, Vol. 3 (pp. 28-84). New York: Guilford Press.
Harris, P.R., Wishire, P. (1988). Estimating the Prevalence of Shyness in the “Global Village”:
Pluralistic Ignorance or False Consensus? Journal of Personality, 56(2), 405-414.
Kahneman, D. (2011/2012). Pułapki myślenia. O myśleniu szybkim i wolnym. Poznań:
Media Rodzina.
Khawaja, N., Yu, L.N.H. (2010). A comparison of the 27-item and 12-item intolerance of
uncertainty scales. Clinical Psychologist, 14(3), 97-106.
Kossowska, M., Szumowska, E., Szwed, P. (2018). Tolerancja w czasach niepewności.
Sopot: Wydawnictwo Smak Słowa.
Lambert, N.M., Stillman, T.F, Hicks, J.A., Kamble, S., Baumeister, R.F., Fincham, F.D. (2013).
To belong is to matter: Sense of belonging enhances meaning in life. Personality and
Social Psychology Bulletin, 39(11), 1418-1427.
Marks, G., Miller, N. (1987). Ten years of research on the false-consensus effect: An empirical
and theoretical review. Psychological Bulletin, 102, 72-90.
Morrison, K.R., Matthes, J. (2011). Socially motivated projection: Need to belong increases
perceived opinion consensus on important issues. European Journal of Social
Psychology, 41, 707-719.
Mudyń, K. (2007). W poszukiwaniu prywatnych orientacji ontologicznych. Kraków: Wydawnictwo
Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego.
Mudyń, K., Kałużna-Wielobób, A. (2015). On the False Ontological Consensus. Polish Psychological
Bulletin, 46(2), 160-173.
Mullen, B. (1983). Egocentric bias in estimates of consensus. The Journal of Social Psychology,
121, 31-38.
Mullen, B., Atkins, J.L., Champion, D.S., Edwards, C., Hardy, D., Story, J.E., Vanderlok, M.
(1985). The false consensus effect: A meta-analysis of 115 hypothesis tests. Journal
of Experimental Social Psychology, 21, 262-283.
Mullen, B., Smith, C. (1989). Social Projection as a Function of Actual Consensus. The
Journal of Social Psychology, 130(4), 501-506.
Okamoto, K. (1983). Effects of excessive similarity feedback on subsequent mood, pursuit
of difference, and preference for novelty or scarcity. Japanese Psychological Research,
25(2), 69-77.
Rabinovitz, M., Latella L., Stern, C., Jost, J.T. (2016). Beliefs about Vaccination in the United
States: Political Ideology, False Consensus, and the Illusion of Uniqueness. PLOS
ONE, July 8.
Robins, R., Hendin, H.M., Trzesniewski, K. (2001). Measuring Global Self-Esteem: Construct
Validation of a Single-Item Measure and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale.
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 27(2), 151-161. Online: https://www.
researchgate.net/publication/228079409_Measuring_Global_Self-Esteem_Construct_
Validation_of_a_Single-Item_Measure_and_the_Rosenberg_Self-Esteem_
Scale (dostęp: 10.01.2019).
Robbins, J.M., Krueger, J.I. (2005) Social Projection to Ingroups and Outgroups: A Review
and Meta-Analysis. Online: https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327957pspr0901_3
(dostęp: 10.01.2019).
Ross, L., Greene, D., House, P. (1977). The “false consensus effect”: An egocentric bias in
social perception and attribution processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,
13, 279-301.
Schwartz, N., Clore, G.L. (1983). Mood, misattribution and judgments of well-being: Informative
and directive function of affective states. Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 45, 513-523.
Snyder, C.R., Fromkin, H.L. (1977). Abnormality as a positive characteristic: The development
and validation of a scale measuring need for uniqueness. Journal of Abnormal
Psychology, 86, 518-527.
Snyder, C.R., Fromkin, H.L. (1980). Uniqueness: The Human Pursuit of Difference. New
York: Plenum Press.
Stern, C., West, T.V., Schmidt, P.G. (2014). The Liberal Illusion of Uniqueness. Psychological
Science, 25, 137-144.
Stern, C., West, T.V., Jost, J.T., Rule, N.O. (2014). “Ditto Heads”: Do Conservatives Perceive
Greater Consensus Within Their Ranks Than Liberals? Personality and Social Psychology
Bulletin, 40(9), 1162-1177.
Yinon, Y., Mayraz, S., Fox, S. (1994). Age and the false-consensus effect. The Journal of
Social Psychology, 134(6), 717-725.
Wojciszke, B. (2001). Dane i pseudodane w procesie spostrzegania ludzi. W: M. Kofta,
T. Szutrowa (red.), Złudzenia, które pozwalają żyć. Szkice ze społecznej psychologii
osobowości (s. 65-90). Warszawa: PWN.
Wojciszke, B. (2002). Człowiek wśród ludzi. Zarys psychologii społecznej. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo
Naukowe Scholar.
Wolfson, S. (2000). Students’ estimates of the prevalence of drug use: Evidence for a false
consensus effect. Psychology of Addictive Behaviours, 14(3), 295-298.
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Published
2019-12-01
How to Cite
Mudyń, K. (2019). Intolerance of Uncertainty, Estimated Consensus, and the False Consensus Effect. Annales Universitatis Paedagogicae Cracoviensis Studia Psychologica, 12, 39–62. https://doi.org/10.24917/20845596.12.2
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